However, as actions are projected further into the future, fewer facts
are available, more assumptions must be made, and the probability of
forecast requirements occurring exactly as predicted diminishes
greatly.
Assumptions are an essential part of forecasting and are
used throughout the planning sequence.
In the absence of facts, assumptions state conditions that must exist
if a specific plan is to be put into effect.
Different assumptions
are used to develop alternate plans for various anticipated
requirements.
A subordinate planner treats a higher commander's assumptions as facts
bearing on the problem.
When additional information becomes
available, forecasts are modified to conform to the new situation.
These changes necessitate corresponding changes in plans being
developed or revisions to those plans already completed.
All staff
sections must be informed promptly of any changes so that planning and
preparation will be coordinated throughout the command.
Examine
Requirements.
Examining
probable
requirements
and
establishing priority of further preparation is the second step in the
planning sequence. This involves an analysis of forecast requirements
and assumptions to determine the probability of their occurring, so
that priorities can be established for further planning and
preparation. At this stage, a planning program begins to emerge.
Study
Implications.
Studying
the
implications
and
the
interrelationships of the probable requirements to formulate an
assumed mission, or missions, is the third step in the planning
sequence.
As a mission becomes apparent, the planning sequence
parallels the commander and staff actions of the decision-making
process.
Analyze Mission.
Analyzing the mission to determine the specific
tasks to be performed, their complexity, and their relative importance
is the fourth step in the planning sequence.
At this point, the
planning tasks and the phasing of planning tasks begin to emerge.
Establish Guidance.
Establishing guidance for specific tasks is the
fifth step in the planning sequence.
Planning guidance keeps all
planners moving in the same direction at the same time.
It makes
concurrent planning easier by providing the foundation for planning
studies.
Guidance may be:
An oral planning directive on specific tactics
Key factors from the analysis of assigned or assumed missions,
courses of action
Forecasts, or procedures from the commander
Policy statements by the commander
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